2yo QT Angles

Works in progress

I always used to avoid 2yo races but some of the 2yo QT Angles are performing pretty well.

2yo 5f Sprint Damsires

10/56 17.86% Strike-Rate, +62.21pts profit, 111.08% ROI

Those are pretty good returns. Here are the 10 winners -:

So, we can see that compared to other non-2yo sire angles, sample sizes are lower as we are just focusing on those profitable damsires for juveniles in sprint races. We can see though that having a minimum runs of 10+, and perhaps minimum places of 5+, and minimum win% of 15%+ and EW% of 25%+ might be the way to go. Also, AE of 1.3+ and IV of 1.8+ but I don’t want to overfilter this system.

I’ve removed a few that are below the requirements and the filters look like this -:

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Flat 2yo 5f Sprint Jockeys

My theory here was that certain jockeys are adept with sprinters, and certain jockeys are adept with 2yo’s so let’s combine them. It can also highlight trainers that do well with juveniles in sprints. It’s not been working out that great, far from disastrous though -:

10/60 (16.67% Strike-Rate, -5.67pts loss, -9.45% ROI)

Let’s look at the winners again -:

I think perhaps we can see why this system hasn’t been profitable. Apart from that Ross Coakley big-priced winner at the outset, the winning prices are just a bit short and the strike rate is good enough I feel. The market has cottoned onto the likes of Billy Loughname when riding for G Boughey and Danny Tudhope for Fahey and Burke, two trainers good with sprinters.

Let’s look at the record of these jockeys since the start of April.

We can see that Tudhope and Marquand’s strike rate is pretty poor leading to some losses. However, Loughnane’s stats are pretty good and yet still shows a small loss. These sample sizes are low though and tbh 60 is pretty low still on the sample sizes.

It’s still early days but I think I will remove Tudhope as his Burke and Fahey runners may be picked up by trainer-based systems. The filters look like this but I’m not sure I’ll stick with it unless we get a few more big-priced winners or consistency -:

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Flat 2yo 5f Sprint Sires

11/80 (13.75% Strike-Rate, +14.57pts profit, 18.21% ROI)

Not bad but not great. Let’s check out those 11 winners -:

Really interesting to see renowned sire miler Kingman in there, suggesting his juveniles have plenty of speed. Time Test, Havana Grey and Land Force have 2 wins apiece and some at decent odds. There are some good minimum filters we can apply to remove a few sires leaving us with the following filters which “should” help improve S/R and ROI.

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For the final 2yo system (there are a couple of others with low sample sizes) we look at

2yo 5f sprint trainers

14/112 (12.5% Strike-Rate, -38.32pts loss, -34.22% ROI)

The worst of the lot, the winners are as follows -:

As we can see Richard Fahey dominates but an honourable mention to D Ffrench Davis who has produced the biggest priced winner.

Let’s look at all the qualifying trainers since the start of April -:

As we can see A Haynes is responsible for a lot of the losses and despite Fahey’s impressive strike-rate, only a small pts profit with Ffrench Davis not far behind in terms of strike-rate but more profitable obviously. The losses don’t add up as I had already removed a few trainers but I think I’ll remove Haynes as that strike-rate is woeful and maybe keep an eye on the others.

The filters look like this and I’d hope for a turnaround but I’m leaning towards preferring the profitable sire and damsire angles -: