It’s been tough going this week for some systems, I think perhaps due to the lack of quality and competitiveness of some races. Newbury’s “Hennessy” meeting was often a good stomping ground for me but some of the field sizes in National Hunt racing need to be addressed somehow. Maybe there are too many meetings for the jumps population, maybe not enough owners or quality bloodstock is being produced and I much prefer the flat season which is not largely based on one meeting each year and has multiple quality course “festivals” throughout the season where you tend to get decent fields, not often impacted by the wintry weather. I’d not be surprised to see a few jumps only tracks go to the wall over the next few years.
I’m just focusing on Newbury today although there is one at Doncaster I like.
Newbury 12:15
Paul Nicholls is a man to follow at Newbury with a 23% Win SR/46% Place SR. His chasers lose a little but his hurdlers have a +29pts profit over 5 years. REGENT’S STROLL 8/13 should take the beating although I don’t bet odds-on but it’s the sole qualifier in this maiden hurdle.
Newbury 12:45
Nicholls can land a quick double here with KALIF DU BERLAIS 5/6 but there are a couple of other system contenders in Idy Wood 17/2 and Tedley 14/1 who hit slightly unprofitable handicap chase damsire angles. Preference for me at the prices is Tedley and I was tempted to put him up each-way but I won’t be backing unprofitable systems until I see them turnaround a little and the favourite could outclass this lot if his jumping holds up. However, I’ll throw an e/w bet on CLASSIC ANTHEM 14/1 who hits a Handicap Chase jockey angle with a 20% SR, +59pts profit and 18% ROI.
Newbury 1:20
Paul Nicholls has another here and one I’ll be backing to win in MISS ALTEA BLUE 9/2 who also hits a 2m hurdle damsire angle that has a 15% SR, +69pts profit and 36% ROI. For an e/w poke I’ll go with INSPIRE HOPE 50/1 who hits a Class Speed Hurdle Sire angle which has a 13% SR, +
Newbury 1:55
Another Nicholls contender here in CAPTAIN TEAGUE 9/4 for a straight win bet. No other profitable system contenders in the race but Johnnywho and The Jukebox Man are the dangers.
Newbury 2:30
A better priced Nicholls runner here with GOLDEN SON 14/1 who is in and out but has had a wind op and is worth an e/w play but there is a strong system contender here for the in-form Venetia Williams with C&D Winner GALOP DE CHASSE 9/4 who could take the beating. Sir Psycho is the only other profitable system contender for the handicap chase trainer system but that’s marginally profitable.
Doncaster 2:40
ALIEN STORM 6/1 for Charlie Longsdon hits a 2m Chase Trainer system with a 16% SR, +20pts profit and 15% ROI and David Bass takes the ride who hits a jockey 5-year course system with a 13% SR, +52pts profit and 21% ROI. It’s a limited sample but he is 4/9 over fences here during that time with 5 places for a PL of +27pts profit.
Newbury 3:05
A disappointing turnout for such a quality staying contest. Langer Dan was interesting for a hurdle damsire Grade 1 system with a 15% SR, +13pts profit and 18% ROI but I’m predictably again going for Nicholls runner MONMIRAL 9/2 who looks progressive and won impressively last time.
Newbury 3:40
Yep, you guessed it. No profitable system qualifiers apart from the two Nicholls runners so I’ll just go with each-way’s on the more consistent of the pair with LARGY POET 10/1 with the jockey taking off a handy 5lb.
The lack of other profitable system qualifiers is unusual on a quality card, but I think it’s due to a lack of runners and qualifiers which leaves it mostly being a Nicholls-fest.