Fri 4th Apr 2025
86.26 BSP & 25 BSP Winners for Value Approach yesterday!
The Value Handicap approach delivered in spades yesterday, with Kiln Time scoring at 40/1, which was available at 66/1 when ratings were published, returning 86.26 BSP. Then, Lilkian scored at 25 BSP, having been 25/1 early, returned 18/1 SP. There was also a placed runner with Timeless Charm who was 28/1 at posting and returned 17/2 in 3rd.
Now, this is not a system but more a methodology. The idea being they are high strike-rate runners who the market has overlooked. Due to the odds, they will have lean spells, but I’m convinced the returns will far outweigh any losses over time. You also have to pay attention to drifters. For example, in the 5:25 at Chelmsford I had highlighted ,Stintino Sunset who was “just” the better value over eventual winner Dubai Immo, by only 0.69%. However, Stintino Sunset dropped from 20/1 to 14/1, whereas Dubai Immo drifted from 18/1 to 28/1, so could be backed close to the off and he won, returning a very generous 52.55 BSP.
Remember, these are highlighted in yellow on the ratings sheet, but the market is fluid, so bear that in mind and check prices before the off, ensuring that you focus on the high strike-rate runners in those races. Your strategy could be to simply back them all each-way or win only at BSP, or my preference would be a combination of the two. Contact me if you need any clarification on the above.
Aintree was not so great. The big jumps meetings like Cheltenham and Aintree are always tough, especially when Willie Mullins dominates with his runners. He could keep dominating, however, there could be an overreaction and recency bias, creating value elsewhere…that’s my hope! Still, it’s 3 days and we’re going again today, but I’ll keep the summary brief.
As I mentioned yesterday, pay attention outside of Aintree as often that is where the value winners tend to pop up, away from the main action.
Aintree 1:45 CALDWELL POTTER 4/1 WIN
Top-Rated in Novice Chases have a 42.86% Strike-Rate and so this is a value play.
Aintree 2:20 IMPOSE TOI 13/2 EW & GIN COCO 66/1 EW
Here, I’ll just go with the top-rated and the value approach contender. Keep an eye in case any of the other 0-rated runners here drift significantly, notably Tune In A Box 25/1, Off The Jury 20/1 or Wellington Arch 18/1
Aintree 2:55 ROYAL INFANTRY 25/1 EW
Novice Hurdle Top-Rated runners have a 50.52% SR so the selection is clearly overpriced, despite the fact that the two at the head of the market are only 1pt behind on the ratings.
Aintree 3:30 JONBON (no bet)
Top-Rated should win this but is not great value at all.
Aintree 4:05 GINNYS DESTINY 14/1 EW & FANTASTIC LADY 25/1 EW & WESTERN ZEPHYR 66/1 EW
Now, note that those outside the Top-3 with a rating have a 40% chance of success here, compared to the 28.74% for the top-rated, which I will put in here as also hits a system. However, look how many there are! Now, this could be an additional value approach, in which case Dreal Deal would be the selection at the “current” prices at 100/1 but I prefer to use the system qualifiers to narrow them down and there are 5. Fantastic Lady hits 2 systems, so it goes in automatically. I’ll throw in Western Zephyr for Sean Bowen, who in such races has a 21% Win S/R, 37% Place S/R, +199pts profit.
Aintree 4:40 BATTLE BORN LAD 11/2 WIN
Top-Rated have a 50.52% S/R in Novice Hurdles so this looks solid value.
Aintree 5:15 OLD GREGORIAN 20/1 EW & KINGS HILL 66/1 EW & DOMINICS FAULT 33/1 EW
3 are joint top-rated but I’ll go with Old Gregorian who is not only the best value of the 3 but hits 2 system angles. I’ll obviously throw in the value approach contender Kings Hill but also Dominics Fault who is not too far behind in %Edge terms.
Gin Coco 80/1 e/w 6 places with Bet365, 100/1 with Ladbrokes for 5 places. Kings Hill 100/1 at Bet365 for 5 places and Dominics Fault 40/1 with Bet365 also. Shop around :-)
And impressed by your quick reply!!