The first time I remember watching the 2000 Guineas was, as a teenager, seeing the mighty El Gran Senor on television, and then there was Dancing Brave, which really sparked my interest in horse racing. Seeing Zafonic in the flesh at Newmarket on the day was mesmerising, not to mention the “horse of a century” Frankel’s demolition job. My best result was in the early days of FormBet on a blog back in 2010 when I put up Makfi, who won at 33/1, paying 80’s on Betfair. It’s always been one of my favourite classics. I feel recent renewals have been a little “weak” if I’m honest, and I hope we get to see a champion today.
Today, we have 6 quality races on ITV1, including the big race and I’ve covered them all below.
Newmarket 1:45 LETHAL LEVI 15/2 EW & INDIAN RUN 33/1 EW
Woodhay Wonder is 2nd-rated and hits a system, but not great value. I’ll have to go with top-rated LETHAL LEVI but go tentatively e/w with 4 plaes with Bet365, Boylesports, Betvictor etc. Orne was tempting on the damsire angle of those with the highest S/R but Excelebration is one of the weaker contenders on that angle and should probably be removed from that system. There are many to choose from from the 25.8% S/R contenders, but I’ll stick with the “yellow value” contender INDIAN RUN, who looks overpriced with 4 places with Betvictor, Bet365 and others.
Goodwood 2:00 ARISAIG 10/1 EW & SEA TO SKY 9/1 EW
Top-Rated Crimson Advocate hits a system here and is top-rated and may well win, considered a win bet only, but the price is too short for my liking. ARISAIG is 2nd-rated and valued, and also hits a system while the higher strike-rate contenders worth considering are Protest for Roger Varian, but I’ll take a chance on the SEA TO SKY for Ralph Beckett whose damsire has the best overall figures of the dam sire qualifiers.
Newmarket 2:20 GALERON 15/2 EW & URBAN SPRAWL 33/1 EW
Again, Hand Of God is top-rated but not great value, so I’ll focus on the higher strike-rate runners from Approval, GALERON, and URBAN SPRAWL, with the latter two preferred at the prices.
Thirsk 2:35 OUR HAVANA 10/1 EW & TRINIDAD 40/1 EW
Obelix was tempting from the high strike-rate runners hitting a system but it’s minimal value at the prices, so I’ll stick with the top-rated OUR HAVANA and throw in the yellow value contender LA TRINIDAD at 40’s.
Newmarket 2:55 NO HALF MEASURES 9/2 WIN & SEVEN QUESTIONS 28/1 EW
Again, we have a top-rated Washington Heights who hits a system but not a great price. The 2nd-rated NO HALF MEASURES is only one point behind and a shade of value, so gets a win nod along with the higher strike-rate runner SEVEN QUESTIONS, who hits a damsire angle courtesy of Makfi, who won the big race on this day many years ago.
Newmarket 3:35 SHADOW OF LIGHT 7/1 EW & TORNADO ALERT 66/1 EW
The big race looks like a fascinating renewal. Field Of Gold is top-rated, but the price is short enough. SHADOW OF LIGHT is 2nd-rated and at a decent price and hits 2 systems for mile trainer and damsire. First up, its an Appleby runner (better recent record in the race than Aiden O’Brien) and Mikel Barzalona is a jockey with a very good record at the track. The damsire New Approach has an excellent record in this category. The others with high strike-rate that hit a system are Green Impact, Scorthy Champ and TORNADO ALERT with 4 places with Bet365, and I’ll throw in the latter at big odds for Suroor and De Sousa.
Urban Sprawl and Tornado Alert in an EW double 40s and 50s❤️