A nice result yesterday with Kyber Crystal winning, returning at 14/1 (20.77 BSP!) - after a brief dip into the flat it’s quality jumps action at Aintree over the next 3 days, culminating in the Grand National on Saturday.
I’ll focus on all the Aintree races, but don’t forget that value can be found elsewhere during these big meetings, so remember to save a copy or download the ratings sheet to your own device for filtering and analysis.
Aintree 1:45 BOOMBAWN 40/1 E/W & RUBAUD 18/1 EW
A high numerical rating for the top-rated BOOMBAWN, they have a 45% Win and 42% place strike rate in novice chase contests, and it also hits a Class 1 Chase damsire angle. It’s a better value than the 33/1 on the ratings sheet as it’s available at 40/1 with a few BOG bookmakers. His damsire Oscar has a fairly low 13.19% S/R in such contests but a +51.22pts profit, 35.57% ROI and 1.15 A/E so it looks way overpriced for the Skeltons.
The 2nd-rated RUBAUD is also worth a smaller e/w bet, given the 2nd-rated in such contests have a 20% S/R and he is a value price. We will of course, require Jango Baie to underperform, but many do after Cheltenham and I’m sure one of these can grab a place at least.
Aintree 2:20 PUTURHANDSTOGETHER 6/4 WIN & AVIEMORE 40/1 EW
Once again a no-brainer. The joint top-rated who have a 29.41% Win S/R in Hurdle races. The Fred Winter winner PUTURHANDSTOGETHER should take the beating despite not being fantastic value, but AVIEMORE looks a generous price and value.
Aintree 2:55 GREY DAWNING 5/2 WIN
Simply a win bet on the clear top-rated GREY DAWNING who have a 36.84% S/R in such races so still a value play at the best price 5/2.
Aintree 3:30 CONSTITUTION HILL 11/10 WIN
CONSTITUTION HILL not a value bet by any stretch and not as far clear as you might like of Lossiemouth and Take No Chances (who looks overpriced) but the track should suit if his jumping holds together and he still remains the one to beat, but it’s a watch race for me.
Aintree 4:05 MY DROGO 6/1 EW
Top-Rated have a 50% Win S/R in Hunter Chase contests from 22 races so the price is clearly value for MY DROGO, but this is a big field Foxhunters so I’ll go each-way.
Aintree 4:40 TOMMYS OSCAR 20/1 EW & GALUNGGUNG 33/1 EW & RATH GAUL HILL 9/1 WIN
We have seen recently that those ranked outside the Top-3 with a rating have overperformed but I’m going to stick with the Top-Rated TOMMYS OSCAR here as he also hits 2 systems, HC Chase Jockey (Danny McMenamin 18% SR, 34% Place S/R, +168pts profit, 33% ROI, 1.1 AE) and 2m Chase Trainer (Mrs A Hamilton 32% SR, 40% Place S/R, +22pts profit, 56% ROI, 1.3 AE).
There are 3 System qualifiers from outside the Top-3, GALUNGGUNG (2m Chase Sire Khalkevi 27% Win, 36% Place, +9pts profit, 41% ROI, 1.31 AE), GUNSIGHT RIDGE (Handicap Chase Jockey Sean Bowen 21% Win, 37% Place, +199pts profit, 8.1% ROI, 1.07 AE) and RATH GAUL HILL (2m Chase Trainer S Drinkwater 33% Win, 45% Place, +66pts profit, 161% ROI, 1.65 AE).
Galunggung goes in as the highest %Edge as per a value system perhaps for handicap chases, but there is not much between him and Gunsight Ridge in that respect at the prices. However, can’t ignore the S/R, ROI and AE for Rath Gaul Hill who goes in as a win bet.
Aintree 5:15 CHARISMA CAT 11/2 EW
Unrated types in bumpers have the highest Win S/R, but only by a little bit. If we were to apply the Value approach then Slack Alice at 125/1 would be the way to go. The Top-rated pair of Seo Linn and CHARISMA CAT I’ll stick with the latter being the positive %Edge value.
Elsewhere OLD PAGE (Sedg 1:45) has the highest numerical rating today and NAMMOS (Chelms 8:00) not far behind. I’ve mentioned Boombawn and My Drogo as top-rated runners with a high Win S/R for top-rated in those races but also POSITIVE ENERGY (Naas 3:10) is another. I’ve highlighted the best value rated runners in handicap hurdles and the handicaps at Chelmsford tonight in Yellow on the ratings sheet, which can be downloaded below.
LILKIAN 25 BSP another nice winner, available at 25/1 when ratings were posted.
KILN TIME at Naas returned 86.26 BSP!