Wed 12th Mar 2025

Cheltenham Day 2 Ratings, Systems & Bets + Day 1 Review

Cheltenham Day 1 Review

I sprung the %Edge column on you (and myself) today and tbh it was probably not the right time to do so as I had to be back and forth to the pet hospital with one of the dogs who has the equivalent of a slipped disc and had to have steroid injections etc so I didn’t really see much of the action, bar the first few races, but have since watched them back and thought I would put together a review. However, we gained some data.

Supreme Review

Kopek Des Bordes was not as decisive as I expected him to be, but was head and shoulders above the rest. Granted, the price was better value than some of his shorter-priced counterparts today and maybe that is the key, to not be afraid to step in when the price is not “too bad,” as he did start a lot shorter than the morning 10/11, winning at 4/6 eventually. Workahead was way too keen and rapped the 5th hurdle and pulled up. Romeo Coolio placed 3rd, and the 15/2 was a marginal value and was just one of those races where the 2nd-highest SR runner, in that race type, won.

Arkle Review

I felt Majborough was the worst value favourite of the day, and so it proved as he jumped poorly, and it cost him the race. There were only 2 that were positive value, L’Eau Du Sud, who ran well but out of steam and Only By Night who was the clear 2nd-best value in the race and a close 2nd. The 3rd-rated Jango Baie took advantage of a strong pace that fed into his stamina, and it was a superb ride from NDB.

Ultima Review

Not much separated these runners on the ratings, it was wide-open. 3 of the Top-4 were rated 2nd (The Changing Man), 5th (Malina Girl) and 6th (Happy Go Lucky) with the winner being ranked 12th. I think Happygolucky should have been my e/w bet as it also hit 2 systems and was ranked 25.32% to win the race, and drifted to 28/1. I’m thinking it’s best, when those with ratings have a same % chance of winning to favour the highest rated at the best value, especially if there is a system+ to back it up.

Mares Hurdle

Lossiemouth was well clear and that was the right call to put in a treble, despite being poor value, it seems. However, I would rather have had Take No Chances e/w as it was clearly the better value and ran 3rd.

Champion Hurdle

We were massively unlucky here. As it stood, the top-2 were well clear and State Man ran better than Constitution Hill who was sketchy and fell at the 5th, sinking the treble. State Man was clearly the e/w bet, was 5 lengths clear before Townend perhaps asked for too big a jump at the last and he fell. Jumping is the name of the game though but I think this could have been a good result in another year. It’s worth noting that Golden Ace and Burdett Road were the only other 2 value prospects at the early 40/1 and 50/1. Golden Ace was a previous festival winner and had won the Kingwell and was supported into 25/1 while Burdett Road was arguably much better value drifting out to 66/1. Sometimes you just get unlucky over the jumps, which is why I prefer the flat as you pick the best horse and they tend to stay on their feet at least.

Fred Winter

Not sure why I thought this was the Coral Cup today; head was a bit all over the place :-) It may have changed my thinking as a result. Again, there was little to separate these ratings so maybe Sony Bill was not the right call, in hindsight. The percentages suggested that those with 0 rating held the edge, and so it proved with the winner and 2 of the 3 placers not being rated. There were no system qualifiers, so it was a bit of a minefield. The winner was actually the lowest edge% of those runners, which suggested it was fancied. The 2nd Robbies Rock was the 3rd best from that group in %Edge terms at 50/1, and maybe that could be the way to go but I think handicap hurdles require their very own ratings model!

National Hunt Challenge Novices Handicap Chase

Sometimes races change so much at the festival, renamed that I can’t remember what race it actual is.

This is one where the ratings got it right with top-rated Haiti Couleurs clear and won well, at a shade of value, so perhaps should have been the win bet. However, again luck comes into it as the pick and value win bet Now Is The Hour was 2 lengths second when falling at the 2nd-last, ironically bringing down what would have perhaps been a big place return on Duffel Coat who was staying on 4th, 4 lengths clear and couldn’t avoid the win selection. Both bets going down at once. I don’t think the winner would have been caught but I’d have taken a 50/1 placer.

Summary

Quite a bizarre day, unlucky in some respects with only Take No Chances returning from advised bets, but think of those who did big-stake win acca’s and trebles! For me I will stick with the value approach, pay closer attention to the ratings, how far clear a horse is, the %Edge and see how we go on Wednesday. Can’t promise I’ll do a review of this each of the days but I’ll try.

Wednesday Preview

Wednesday Treble

Cheltenham 1:20 FINAL DEMAND
Cheltenham 2:00 BALLYBURN
Cheltenham 4:00 JONBON

Treble pays 6.64/1 at Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365.

I’m getting this out early as I want a day at the gym and it’s important to take a little breather over these 4 days. Having said that, I won’t have updated all the stats for the race types until Wednesday, so bear that in mind. It won’t be 100% accurate, therefore but it’s good to focus life quality over perfection. Thursday and Friday will see a return to accuracy.

Cheltenham 1:20 FINAL DEMAND 6/4 WIN & POTTERS CHARM 14/1 EW

No doubting it, especially after Kopek Des Bordes won on Tuesday, the top-rated in these has increased a bit so the 6/4 about Final Demand is value and I expect to start shorter, but The New Lion is only 1pt behind on the ratings, so it’s not quite as clear cut as that. 11 runners in this. Bearing in mind what happened with Romeo Coolio was a shade of value in 3rd, I’d throw in POTTERS CHARM as an e/w bet.

Cheltenham 2:00 BALLYBURN 4/6 WIN

Again, the 60% S/R has taken a hit in novice chases with L’Eau De Sud losing today but there is no other option here. Dancing City is the main danger but Ballyburn is well clear.

Cheltenham 2:40 IMPOSE TOI WIN 9/1 WIN & JIPCOT 14/1 EW & AL GASPARO 20/1 EW

Usually these are pretty tight on the ratings but the top-rated IMPOSE TOI is well clear so looks great value at the prices. Of course, in handicap hurdles, we learned today (perhaps) with the Fred Winter that the lowest edge% of those unrated runners hold a chance, so that gives a shout to Jimmy Du Seull. However, we also learned that those with the highest %Edge from that group are worth noting, provided they are not the rank outsider, which sort of rules out Captain Morgs and narrows the focus to Beacon Edge and Staffordshire Knot, but I don’t like either of those. Unlike the Fred Winter, we have a system qualifier, with a rating in JIPCOT and the 2.4m hurdle sires angle has a 19.6% Win and 34.17% Place SR. I also like AL GASPARO who is 4th-rated and the better value of those in that range, with Gavin Cromwell getting a winner on Tuesday, it’s a 3rd throw of the dice.

Cheltenham 3:20 IWILLDOIT 22/1 EW & CHAMBARD 66/1 EW

I could have gone for Stumptown at a low price, top-rated but the 2nd-rated is the clear value here, hitting 2 systems. Chambard has been an annoying so far but dropping down the weights, hits a system and easily the better value of those outside the top-3 with a 25.32% SR in this race type. Galvin and Mr Coffey would be no surprise.

Cheltenham 4:00 ENERGUMENE 15/2 EW

In all likelihood, the 42.86% Win SR on Top-Rated Jonbon lands this more often than not so I will throw him in on today’s treble, but he has been found out here before here and the only value alternative is the 28.57% SR on the 2nd-rated ENERGUMENE EW with 3 places up for grabs.

Cheltenham 4:40 MY MATE MOZZIE 7/1 WIN & WESTERN ZEPHYR 28/1 EW

Another handicap chase where it could be folly to oppose the top-rated MY MATE MOZZIE, so I will put him in as a win bet. Dancing On My Own was tempting but no spring chicken. However, those ranked outside the top-3 with a ratings have a superior S/R and there are 3 that hit systems at big odds and jump out for value. Nells Son, Fringill Dike and Western Zephyr. Despite being tempted by the Danny McMenamin runner Nells Son, I will plump for the Longsdon/Bowen runner WESTERN ZEPHYR who also hits a trainer/jockey system.

Cheltenham 5:20 FORTUNE DE MER 20/1 EW

A Bumper!!

To be fair the top-rated had a winner today with Ce Mi Run at Sedgefield and Switch From Diesel on Sunday at Naas. With that in mind, I’ll just throw an e/w bet on FORTUNE DE MER, who is also value, as it’s impossible for me to pick from the higher S/R unrated runners.

Wednesday Ratings & Systems Download