I find trends are good at producing a decent shortlist for handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival. I think you pointed-out last week that Mullins has broken the mould on the championship race trends - he does things his own way, and if that works he's not going to change it.
For handicaps though, trends (and important factors) rule. What I look for (which works for me) is young horses with no more than 15 races in the book, and having won at the trip (or further).
Example - Ultima h'cap Ch:
1st: Chianti Classico - 7yo; 10 previous races (3x NHF; 4x Hdl; 3x Ch) winner at the the trip (3-mile).
2nd: Twig - 9yo; 15 previous races (2x NHF; 6x Hdl; 7x Ch) won at the trip (3m2f & 3-mile).
3rd: Meetingofthewaters - 7yo; 17 prev races (2x NHF; 10x Hdl; 5x Ch); won at the trip (3-mile+)
I was on Twig at 28/1 as I thought the winner lacked big-field experience.
Then there are other clues from previous Festival form.
Example - Grand Annual Ch:
1st: Unexpected Party - 9yo; clue was close-up 5th in 2023 G1 "Turners" Nov Chase
Then there are trainer coups from either a sacrificial top-weight, ensuring the main-chance runs off a lower weight; or switching codes to take advantage of a low rating.
Example - Pertemps h'cap Hurdle
1st: Monmiral - 7yo; won G1 hurdle at Aintree in 2021 and rated OR153, ran off OR138 (had struggled off higher ratings in novice chases).
Some winners - like Shakem Up'Arry in the "Plate" - had been aimed at their target race. Shakem was 3rd in the Plate in 2023, and had shown improved form since (won over C&D). Even so, he was fortunate to beat the lightly-raced 7yo Crebilly, who could be a 155+ chaser with better jumping.
And then there are the potential "Gold Cup" winners running in a handicap; I'm think of the 6yo Inothewayyurthinkin who destroyed the Kim Muir field despite carrying 12st. Remember, Galopin Des Champs won a handicap hurdle at the Festival off OR142 (with subsequent dual Coral Cup winner Langer Dan in 2nd), and I can see Inothewayyurthinkin winning the Gold Cup in 2026.
Yes, agreed Ian. It was more of a test with many of the Cheltenham systems, I knew they would produce too many selections, trends analysis, especially an elimination method has always worked better for me over jumps than the flat. I'll pay much more attention to trends for Aintree and the jumps season overall, but I'm also really excited about the filtered Report Angles that I've tightened up and should produce the goods over both codes. Early days for all those though, in terms of sample size, whereas trends you have 10 years worth of data to work with and patterns do repeat. Thanks for posting!
I find trends are good at producing a decent shortlist for handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival. I think you pointed-out last week that Mullins has broken the mould on the championship race trends - he does things his own way, and if that works he's not going to change it.
For handicaps though, trends (and important factors) rule. What I look for (which works for me) is young horses with no more than 15 races in the book, and having won at the trip (or further).
Example - Ultima h'cap Ch:
1st: Chianti Classico - 7yo; 10 previous races (3x NHF; 4x Hdl; 3x Ch) winner at the the trip (3-mile).
2nd: Twig - 9yo; 15 previous races (2x NHF; 6x Hdl; 7x Ch) won at the trip (3m2f & 3-mile).
3rd: Meetingofthewaters - 7yo; 17 prev races (2x NHF; 10x Hdl; 5x Ch); won at the trip (3-mile+)
I was on Twig at 28/1 as I thought the winner lacked big-field experience.
Then there are other clues from previous Festival form.
Example - Grand Annual Ch:
1st: Unexpected Party - 9yo; clue was close-up 5th in 2023 G1 "Turners" Nov Chase
Then there are trainer coups from either a sacrificial top-weight, ensuring the main-chance runs off a lower weight; or switching codes to take advantage of a low rating.
Example - Pertemps h'cap Hurdle
1st: Monmiral - 7yo; won G1 hurdle at Aintree in 2021 and rated OR153, ran off OR138 (had struggled off higher ratings in novice chases).
Some winners - like Shakem Up'Arry in the "Plate" - had been aimed at their target race. Shakem was 3rd in the Plate in 2023, and had shown improved form since (won over C&D). Even so, he was fortunate to beat the lightly-raced 7yo Crebilly, who could be a 155+ chaser with better jumping.
And then there are the potential "Gold Cup" winners running in a handicap; I'm think of the 6yo Inothewayyurthinkin who destroyed the Kim Muir field despite carrying 12st. Remember, Galopin Des Champs won a handicap hurdle at the Festival off OR142 (with subsequent dual Coral Cup winner Langer Dan in 2nd), and I can see Inothewayyurthinkin winning the Gold Cup in 2026.
Yes, agreed Ian. It was more of a test with many of the Cheltenham systems, I knew they would produce too many selections, trends analysis, especially an elimination method has always worked better for me over jumps than the flat. I'll pay much more attention to trends for Aintree and the jumps season overall, but I'm also really excited about the filtered Report Angles that I've tightened up and should produce the goods over both codes. Early days for all those though, in terms of sample size, whereas trends you have 10 years worth of data to work with and patterns do repeat. Thanks for posting!