Sun 20th Apr 2025
Irish Grand National Trends Pick
31 of the 50 race winners yesterday were from the top 3 ratings, with 17 Top-Rated winners, a 34% Strike-Rate. That's not bad for a competitive Saturday with some big fields. The “yellow” value bets had many decent placers, especially for those getting enhanced places with Skybet, with Bredon Hill Dart 20/1, For You Buzz 20/1, Razdan 33/1, Rock Of Ireland 28/1, Striking A Pose 16/1, with the highlights being winners Persuasion 16/1 (22.33 BSP) at Musselburgh and Grand Duchess Olga 12/1 (17.5 BSP) at Wolverhampton.
I don’t have time to delve into the ratings today, will save that for the racing on ITV tomorrow, but I have run the trends for the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse tomorrow. This is a race that was really good to me in the past from a trends perspective for the “old” FormBet, with several big-priced winners including General Principle (20/1), Thunder And Roses (20/1), Liberty Counsel (50/1), Lion Na Bearnai (33/1) and Bluesea Cracker (25/1) - many of these were single trends qualifiers and put up at bigger prices, although it’s been tougher last few years. However, that is the nature of trends, and they won’t land every year. Here are the strongest trends for the race and a solo 25/1 pick at the end…
19/21 – Won over at least 3m previously
18/21 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
18/21 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
18/21 – Aged 9 or younger
17/21 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
16/21 – Irish bred
16/21 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
16/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/21 – Returned a double-figure (or triple-figure) price
14/21 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
13/21 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/21 – Unplaced favourites
12/21 – Finished fourth or better last time out
Now, there are a few here that also probably will hit systems. The two reserves Will Do and Canal End qualify but they do need a few to come out, which could happen due to the desperate state of the ground, but there is one that gets in and hits all the above is BUSHMANS PASS for Phillip Enright at 25/1 with Hills paying 6 places, and that for me is the sole selection. Won the Leinster National at Naas back in March and has course-winning form, and probably will hit a handicap chase damsire angle. I’ll also be interested in WILL DO if that gets in at 25/1 as well.
Great to see the ratings doing well again Dave , shame i was out for the day !! I am thinking of ways to narrow down on your selections a tad , to give a more managerable amount . Have you ever looked at profiling ? Horseracebase do a really good and in depth profile on each horse . For example if the profile is clear a horse has won only in a certain time frame {DSLR } or a certain jockey , ground preference etc etc but appears in your Top 3 , would you still bet it ? Of course on the other side of the fence , if it is clear it has a lot in its favour it wont be a 25/1 shot generally !! Any Thoughts ??