Great to see the ratings doing well again Dave , shame i was out for the day !! I am thinking of ways to narrow down on your selections a tad , to give a more managerable amount . Have you ever looked at profiling ? Horseracebase do a really good and in depth profile on each horse . For example if the profile is clear a horse has won only in a certain time frame {DSLR } or a certain jockey , ground preference etc etc but appears in your Top 3 , would you still bet it ? Of course on the other side of the fence , if it is clear it has a lot in its favour it wont be a 25/1 shot generally !! Any Thoughts ??
Hey Cobbs. I'm not familiar with horseracebase and of course the more obvious factors you look at, the shorter the price. It's a tricky one. With the value yellow selections they are usually outside the top-3, or in the case of handicap hurdles, have no rating (0) because they don't hit the factors that I am rating.
My approach is to back them each-way for enhanced places and BOG plus a win bet at BSP. You will have longer losing runs by going win only but there have been some huge priced wins that usually more than make up for longer losing runs.
I would say with the profiling, it would be better to use that to narrow down top-rated high strike rate contenders but then again you will end up backing some shorties. This could work well though if they are top-3 rated, not so short and have a positive %Edge, or at least not a large negative %Edge if you can shop around for better prices.
I want to build out a full results database so I can analyse the data better but I'm short of time at the moment due to other commitments and won't likely be till May/June and of course the ratings don't really have a massive dataset at the moment.
I'd be interested to hear of any profiling horses that show up strongly on the ratings or certain other data that might flag a yellow value contender. I think perhaps you could also use the smart stats ratings on the Racing Post, the pace tabs on GeeGeez or the pace hints on racinguk or atr websites but I've not really checked many of these in detail.
Thanks for your reply , interesting thoughts . i am going through the Yellow contenders as i write this . Takes a lot of time ! I am trying not to be too strict as the big priced Yellow contenders dont have a lot going for them ! Probably work better as you point out , with the Top 3 in the ratings .
Great to see the ratings doing well again Dave , shame i was out for the day !! I am thinking of ways to narrow down on your selections a tad , to give a more managerable amount . Have you ever looked at profiling ? Horseracebase do a really good and in depth profile on each horse . For example if the profile is clear a horse has won only in a certain time frame {DSLR } or a certain jockey , ground preference etc etc but appears in your Top 3 , would you still bet it ? Of course on the other side of the fence , if it is clear it has a lot in its favour it wont be a 25/1 shot generally !! Any Thoughts ??
Hey Cobbs. I'm not familiar with horseracebase and of course the more obvious factors you look at, the shorter the price. It's a tricky one. With the value yellow selections they are usually outside the top-3, or in the case of handicap hurdles, have no rating (0) because they don't hit the factors that I am rating.
My approach is to back them each-way for enhanced places and BOG plus a win bet at BSP. You will have longer losing runs by going win only but there have been some huge priced wins that usually more than make up for longer losing runs.
I would say with the profiling, it would be better to use that to narrow down top-rated high strike rate contenders but then again you will end up backing some shorties. This could work well though if they are top-3 rated, not so short and have a positive %Edge, or at least not a large negative %Edge if you can shop around for better prices.
I want to build out a full results database so I can analyse the data better but I'm short of time at the moment due to other commitments and won't likely be till May/June and of course the ratings don't really have a massive dataset at the moment.
I'd be interested to hear of any profiling horses that show up strongly on the ratings or certain other data that might flag a yellow value contender. I think perhaps you could also use the smart stats ratings on the Racing Post, the pace tabs on GeeGeez or the pace hints on racinguk or atr websites but I've not really checked many of these in detail.
Thanks for your reply , interesting thoughts . i am going through the Yellow contenders as i write this . Takes a lot of time ! I am trying not to be too strict as the big priced Yellow contenders dont have a lot going for them ! Probably work better as you point out , with the Top 3 in the ratings .